A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
